$BTC #Bitcoin Bulls in control? Quick market update 2/15/22

$BTC #Bitcoin Bulls in control?  Quick market update 2/15/22

Show Video

all right everybody how about that how about that  i'm big chad's today it is time flies it's tuesday   february 15th 2022 i hope everyone was doing  well hope you had a great valentine's day   please do give me a shout out here in the  chat room let me know if you can hear me okay   i'm gonna get this party started i'm gonna slide  that music off right now folks once again thank   you very much for coming i am big chad's i'm  doing this for fun i start out with dancing   trying to set the mood uh set the tone i just i  want to connect with you a little bit and kind   of hopefully that will make it easier to learn  we'll talk about bitcoin talk about crypto we'll   talk about risk management and we'll just try  to have fun this is what we're doing this for   looks like you can hear me loud and clear this  is a worldwide phenomenon i see we have people   from all over the world already jordan all  right what's going on what's up in jordan   uh what's up uk in the house greetings  from mexico portugal from boston pakistan   australia so listen we're all here together  we're all connected if you're um if you're   struggling you're not the only one like trading  is super super hard trading is super complicated   and i'm gonna try to make it a little bit less  complicated a little bit easier for you and   the reason i think i can do that is i've made  every mistake i've made them all a hundred times   and for like part of my pentenents  is i try to teach you how to not   make those mistakes so let's get right to  it i'm on twitter of course at big chats   um we'll talk about kind of a series of tweets  um laying out how we got here tonight and kind   of where we are and this won't be long this is  just a quick little update but um i'm on twitter   of course i'm on youtube go to my channel hit um  hit like and subscribe appreciate if you do that   go to playlists if you like 99 of your questions  can be answered by watching the tutorial playlists   um this is where i explain my entire setup how  i approach the chart what i'm looking for um   the basic terminology it's going to make it easier  to watch my stuff on here and then from there   there is of course the free version of the book  trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know   i am the author um is on amazon right now  there's four formats but you can get it for   free on youtube so definitely check that out and  bitcoin live i'm the founding analyst at bitcoin   live the best in class educational platform for  crypto twice a week long for market updates from   me and i'm just one of many contributors wonderful  team i've been doing it for a long time something   i'm proud of so i'd uh consider you uh you know  i would recommend you consider checking that out   so my friends what do we think what do we think  is going on it's so complicated and um you gotta   try to find a way to make it easy right you know  what is that the analysis paralysis if you look   too close if you're looking at too many things  if you have you know too complicated to set up   what's up vancouver algeria uh good to see you  there belcotti i see a man definitely see you uh   slow and steady wins the race that is a fact  uh let's see what's going on sorry you missed   bulgaria you missed the dance session i'll do one  at the end justin we're good and what's up big   chess another alert netherlands what's going on  so we're trying to make it a little bit simpler um   and you got to kind of look at just zones  like you have a chart and you want to see   the price rising over time and you want to see  it holding on to two games right if you're in in   war and it's kind of a back and forth  and there's these hills in the middle   and these sides kind of push back and forth  almost like a like a wave you crash in and   come tied it comes in and it kind of reseeds and  it comes out again and you wanna hold on to your   games each time and you can eventually win the  battle and that's that's how it is with charting   when when you have like a big low like health  wise for the for the construction of the chart   bulls definitely want to hold that you know 30k  level right you can see that and then because then   you know this this area is now in the past  we're probably not going to revisit that and   if we can hold this you know we bounce here  and this is kind of locked in you build those   gains over time that's the goal right so how  do you simplify it and how do we get here so   very well documented how we got here and um  i've talked about it like of course uh you   know on my youtube youtube channel on twitter  on bitcoin live you know kind of where i'm at   and how i approached it and we've been correcting  and i've used this analogy before many times   where you have a downtrend it has to go  side well you don't really go like that   in a downtrend do you you go a little bit  more like this you're going to downtrend   you have to go sideways before you can go up  again right so you kind of want to think about   simplifying it is it going up is it going down or  is it deciding is it consolidating right and so   the first step here because it's really  easy to get carried away in all of these   little bounces these are relief rallies these  are counter trend moves it's really easy to get   caught away are caught up in them but once you're  practiced enough and you've been doing it you kind   of understand you're just bouncing into kind of  a descending resistance moving average resistance   and you kind of observe the chart and you start  to see like where the price is rejected i've   talked about this here with ema34 so in order you  know you see where it's rejected so in order to   go from downtrend to kind of deciding or pausing  you have to you know you have to recapture some of   those fox those those hills you have to recapture  some of those objectives ema 34 we did that here   and now we're doing ma50 so you see the signs here  of weakening bear trend we've talked about that um   but like how we got here so january 21st a relief  rally is likely sooner than later price cannot   stay this below the lower bollinger for this long  in the daily and that was down here that was um   that was this day right it wasn't the bottom  it was in the general vicinity of the bottom   because we went lower from there but the idea  is that the price is elastic and it's going to   be sometimes it moves too far and will snap back  so even in this in this um uh bearish environment   it's still likely to at least bounce you  know from here it was at uh you know 34 it   was likely to at least tag the ema eight you know  before getting rejected that's a pretty good move   you know i'm like 31 to uh to like 37 ish on  37.5 so you're still kind of looking for a   bounce there you get the balance you know it's  a relief rally bounce and then that gets us to   the point where now we're watching to see  when that downtrend goes sideways right so   we kind of anticipated the beginning of a  relief rally it happened it kind of made sense   and then i was wrong early because i thought the  price had kind of topped out and was going to   head back you know because we had we had rejected  here at the m820 we rejected here at the ma20 the   simple moving average the middle bollinger band  let's check the chat room real quick all right   good to see everybody much love thank you love it  sma or ema both it it depends and i explained that   earlier in the video watch my tutorial it explains  it you don't need to ask me i gave you a video my   friend please watch that we'll make it make it all  help it make all sense to you hope it all makes   sense to you i thought we would reject here i'm  looking for that rejection ma20 and this point i'm   thinking hey we went you know from whatever 33 all  the way to 39 that's a good balance we'll reject   you know it's one of those things where it's a  downtrend so it's going to continue until proven   otherwise so i was looking for that bounce to  fade it didn't but i was at least observing   i was i was saying to myself and i was identifying  what would make me change my mind and you always   want to think about what would make you change  your mind and i've talked about how like even   even in my trade where i did litecoin  i was waiting for that hundred level   to play the 100 to 140 you know i played  that trade but even like on the way down   there were levels that i would have switched  around and gone bullish there was levels that   would have suggested the trend had changed  and that's the con that's the kind of what   you want to think about right when you kind of  your mentality so for me you know i would have   changed my mind here we need to flip that and  close the daily ema34 for any real suggestion   of a return to the primary bold trend right so  you know february 1st so uh you know there we   are we're down here and it's you know at that  point it's it's a bear flag it's a bare flag   at that point right you end up doing this  kind of tower bottom or a rounded bottom   um you know whatever you want to call it even  uh you could even call it a bear flag that uh   you know that that broke down and then continue to  kind of bear trap bottom line is it never retested   those lows uh the bottom line is is it start to  recap recapture those moving averages and then   we got it here and the price bounced now we're up  here you know where are we next in the progression so here right we're february 1st you know  we're looking at that ema 34. and now here   we go february january 29th so i was a little  bit out of order so january 29th was before   just a couple days before and this  is really early and i was thinking   this is right you know this is right here  and i was thinking what if we do this and   look what we're doing right we're starting to  do that i said a possible is a possible path   now i also put out a bearish  scenario that didn't play out so   you know you could very rightly say hey you played  it both ways yeah that's correct because i'm i   try to be a true technician a true technician can  articulate both the bullish and the bearish thesis   and that's kind of the point in my opinion the  way i approach things but this is the possible   path for bulls that made the most sense we're kind  of you know potentially doing that but in that   that leads me to the most important thing  tonight i put out a tweet earlier where i   said like everybody can identify a head and  shoulders but nobody knows how to play it   right let's just check in the chat room see how  everybody's doing yep everyone's doing well i see   it you've sent me this like you're here with your  trading light i don't know what this means thank   you khalid i see that message in the chat room i  i i appreciate that um thank you my friend um so   everybody can identify the head and shoulders but  it's like you know do they know how to play it   problem with this is here's the problem  with this okay is that everything from here   to here is unclear like everything  in here to here is unclear because   in this in this area not just the right  shoulder but in this area you're developing   the shoulders you're developing the shoulders  and they're not always clean like is it here   are we going to dip down and maybe because  they could still be a head and shoulders   it's it's developing in here so it's like it's  the whole idea that like the best trades come   from well-defined levels right and ideally  horizontal levels right so um that's the   problem so what do you do you you only play on the  breakout the retest of the breakout or you play   in the invalidation and here it would probably  be i think it's a little high in 42. i think   this is an interesting case so this is  really interesting head shoulders because   you could argue with the height you could argue  for the neck baseline as being kind of the height   of the left shoulder but you know you have the the  the fact that the bod this is a critical support   level 46k just above so i think you actually want  to extend this neck base into kind of this larger   zone and you want to really wait for confirmation  because even if this quote unquote completed it   only has like a you know a few hundred dollars  before it's bumping up against that major level   so you have to then say it's got to flip this  level so now you've got a really well established   resistance level 45.5 46k maybe 46.5 depending on  how i'm conservative i think 46k would be rather   clean nice psychological level so you play it  that way you play the breakout or the retest   but the point i i should have made earlier is that  most people only look at the breakout they either   make the mistake of playing in the middle while  it's developing or they only you know they only   play the breakout when does it invalidate because  you remember we had that head and shoulders here   right and there are a lot of people playing  this head and shoulders who jumped in because   there's a head and shoulders but they never  sold when it invalidated and i tweeted out   as it was invalidating i tweeted out if you had a  long trade your stop loss just hit like that was   the tweet because it just hit though it broke down  so you have to be real with yourself in the sense   that if your thesis is and that's kind of your  your medium your broader term thesis is the head   and shoulders when's it going to fail so then you  kind of get to kind of the risk management aspects   of how trying to kind of parse out the classical  charting and kind of getting you the best fit   um and adapting it and all that i think it's  really 40k right it's got to be 40k it's that   clean psychological level um and it's not just  kind of this action here it kind of extends back   and you've got you know the 40k so it's a well  established level and it's just the easiest one   right is it 41k is it 39 i mean you can make those  arguments but the question is what's going to be   the easiest one for you to play for you to define  your risk it's 40k it breaks down to 40k you exit   your trade right if it gets back up above it you  can go long if it gets above 46 you can go long   right that's that's it so with the head and  shoulders you got to make sure you understand   both when it completes uh and when it invalidates  um what do we have going on right now i mean it   looks pretty good beautiful move um i was actually  expecting it to stall out a little bit lower maybe   around 44.5 a little more resilient than i thought  we'll have to wait and see what happens i do not  

know what's going to happen next um i'll just  i'll tell you that much right now but i'll but   i'm prepared to potentially trade it uh whatever  way it happened so anyway thank you folks um i   just want to remind you you can find me did i get  through actually so there's more i want to explain all right so then uh february 12th all right so  february 12th so look at this this is a really   nice so what did you do did you go long in 40k if  you didn't go long in 40k and you didn't go along   on the ma50 where did you go long on the retest  and you can see it's very interesting you had you   had the orange line converging with the green line  and the yellow those are like really important um   levels on this chart ema eight always is ema  34 was the height of the relief rally you know   in the ma-50 the sma-50 was kind of the canary  in the coal mine it has been the canary in the   coal mine certainly was back here and that's the  level you need you know you really want to get   back up above for momentum get back above it this  rolls around you kind of cross back above the 200   um you had them all coming together so that was a  really logical spot to go along so right here on   february 12th reasonable thesis it's all about a  thesis your thesis and because if you lose these   moving averages right you can cut the trade  and you can get out and that's here so it's an   asymmetric risk you've got a limited downside with  the pretty good upsides you're already in a decent   amount of profit um from that trade but right it's  a reasonable thesis to go along on the retest and   then here's your invalidation it wicked intraday  i think 41.6 but it basically came back up above   it gave you plenty of opportunity to go along um  as that's happening we got some very interesting   interesting kind of um japanese candlestick  signals and a little bit of a combination of   classical charting with the outside bar uh let's  see february 14th yesterday so i kind of chalked   this up the big red red bodies the spinning  top right so it's it this really it tells you   so much it's the momentum and you're watching  momentum and you can see it's stalling here   you see it's stalling you see that you know that  profit taking that's kind of downward momentum but   you're naturally like if after this kind of a  move you're naturally looking naturally looking   for like a like a falling wedge or a bull flag  or definitely here that re-test the horizontal   so it kind of came back into where  it had consolidated it was it's all   so this is so textbook which is why it's not you  know it's bitcoin's been pretty easy to kind of   short-term um handicap for quite a while now you  know long term nobody can really do it but short   term because it's giving you clean response to  supply and demand and here the throwback to the   horizontal but it got there pretty quick right it  got there reasonably quick right and the big red   bodies and then boom the spinning top right that's  a sign of a reduction of the prior bear force   then the inside bar right and then this candle  inside that candle and then here the outside   bar which is all those signals spinning  top inside the bare force is slowed down   and then the outside bar the bull force  envelops it and then it kind of expands out   and then we're seeing the fall follow through on  that right we're seeing the fall throwing that   momentum so it's beautiful it's all textbook it's  it's beautiful so it was fun to talk about that um   as a reminder check out my stuff on youtube and if  you want to know like how you know how can you do   what i just did just go watch the tutorials you  have to watch these tutorials if you want more   check out the quick market updates check  out the long form interview series i have   five excellent interviews with brilliant minds  i'm going to be adding more having fun with that   check out the free version of the book trading  with them 50 lessons every trader should know   um i've done 11 of the 50 lessons in the book i  will eventually have the whole book out for you   for free it's available on amazon kindle audiobook  audiobook hardcover and paperback and of course i   am a incredibly proud to be a founding analyst  bitcoin live best in class educational platform   for crypto you definitely want to check it  out if you're serious and you want to stop   struggling and you really want to learn how  to kind of you know figure out what bitcoin   is doing and to manage your risk because we  have a lot of fun with that um it's been my   pleasure i i got to tell you it's a worldwide  thing i love hearing where you folks are from and listen i put out a tweet earlier if  you're if your trading system isn't working   it's probably too complicated and it's true  you know try cutting those indicators off   just everything i did tonight did i even  mention the rsi once thank you so much   um for that happy trees i appreciate that that's  very nice of you um did i mention the rsi once   like rsi has not factored in my analysis and  i pretty much nailed every move like since you   know late october i have it i have the receipts so  it's like you know it's price focus on the price   too many people use the rsi to generate an idea it  needs to come from the relationship between price   and support and demand uh support and resistance  because support is demand it's the relationship   between price and supply and demand and the  momentum like how you're getting there and it's   just the candles the candle bodies upper wicks  we see this it's just you could have seen this   i mean it's just it's textbook i love bitcoin it's  trading really nicely we're going to watch 46k   watch 40k for an invalidation and we're going to  manage our risk so i hope that has been helpful   um i'm gonna leave with a little bit of  dancing just to lighten things up and to   uh send my love to you wherever you are i hope  you're doing well and i really do appreciate you   uh watching this stream all  right let's see we got right here you

2022-02-17 20:48

Show Video

Other news