Weekly Forex Forecast: May 14 - 18 2018 – Forex Trading Guide
To our weekly, forex, market, analysis. Or. Treating. For, the week of May 14th, to the 18th 2018. This, is a spammer before we get started this is for educational purposes only, trees and, risky business so, please be very good with. Your money, all. Right so start. Off by taking. Our. Forex. Factory, here. First of all as usual. So. This. Week. Just. Before we actually get started just, a good comment on stuff, that happened, last week, so one main. Thing that happens you must have noticed volatility. In the market, one. Of the main reasons. For that was to do with the u.s. pulling out of the nuclear, deal the. Iran nuclear deal that created, a, lot, of volatility in the market and also. So. The reason the Iran nuclear deal is, important, is, because or. The reason it was having impact. On the markets here was because there's speculation now, if Iran, is not supplying, the oil there'll be a shortfall in the oil so. It's not supposed to impact. The. Market just yet because, there is a lot of inventory oil, inventories, that are all, reserves, that they still have so that's not concerned just yet but. Down, in the third quarter fourth quarter that's when there. Will be that concern of supply, of oil, however. Because market, was spared or market participants, were speculating, we. Saw a price of oil start. To go up and as a result dollar, cad went. Down and Canadian dollar became stronger, and then, we have Bank of England, monetary. Policy statement came out and essentially. Bank of England said that they are still. Thinking. Of doing, interest. Rate hikes but they won't be this year they didn't really give any specific. Timeframe, for, doing those those. Hikes and the, market was actually looking, for interest rate hikes this year from Bank of England they did say that they wouldn't do them this year but they just were. In. The market and they. Didn't they didn't really provide any guidance around when, the interest rate hikes might happen as a result of that we saw British Pound Drop. So, those were some of the key things that, impacted. The market on Friday, we had Canadian doll data that came out negative as a result of that we, saw impact. From, that so, coming up on Monday. Here, we, have a monetary policy for, meeting, minutes for Australia, Australia. Or. Australian RDA Reserve. Bank of Australia, is another, one of those banks who's not. Intending. To do any interest, rate hikes at this point so what, we're looking for here would be how, what. They talked about in terms of when they may change the monetary policy and. Any. Of the, discussion. Around the state of the economy, if. The tone is hawkish, if they're positive about the economy, and the and the growth then. This, will be positive, for. For. Australian, dollar otherwise. We'll have a negative impact, there, on. Tuesday, here we have average. Earnings, as well as employment, data for very found here again, this is all these very important, numbers that come out comes out so it. Is important, another, thing I forgot to mention we had inflation, CIA. Data that came out negative for the US dollar and that's why we saw on Friday we saw US dollar take, a hit as, well so that was, inflation. Data is very very important, because it's one of the key things that are key data points that the. Central banks will pay attention to, when. Making decisions around monetary. Policy, so, that's why we. Saw the US dollar drop, as a result, of negative, data because. Market. Participants, are still looking for an interest rate hike from. The Fed next, month however, it just creates, issues. When the data is not coming up it just creates more, uncertainty around. Interest, rate hikes and then, we have inflation, report hearings, here for the British Pound again. This, is important, we, we. Saw the inflation, report on Friday, or. Sorry last week I should say and so. We have these hearings again there will be important, retail, sales numbers will. Be important for the US if they are positive that. Would be good, for the US but negative number I think will have more, of an adverse, impact, and a positive, or. Than the positive impact, from the positive number, so it would if we get negative numbers, they will basically compound.
The Previous, CPI, numbers, or the negative CPI, numbers so that would be that, will cause a more, of a negative. Impact. Here, on the US dollar so that's important. Here. Again very, number. Because, as the employment goes up they. Want to see the wage, wages. Go up as well and. That's. Why if they don't go up it has, a negative impact on, the. Currency, Wednesday. Here we'll have a to be President. Draghi in any, time there's a central banker talking we have to be attention, because it could cause have. An impact on the market so we'll, keep that in mind building, permits numbers, it will be important, for the US, crude. Oil inventories. Is. Always, important, for the Canadian dollars we'll have to keep an, eye on then on, that and then we have another central, banker talking here, for, Swiss, National, Bank and. Mainly. Will be the Swiss crack that will be impacted, by that more. Numbers for, Australia. Here will have a direct impact on Australian dollar and then, finally. On Friday, CPI. And coal retail, sales numbers again two, important, numbers that the banks, will keep. An eye on especially on the inflation, number here, so, this, is what we need we need to pay. Attention to, so, a lot of data coming, up we'll just have to, look. At it as we, go all right so next one, here, we'll take a look at. Okay. So next. We'll go to our chart. So let's take a look here. As. Usual. We'll start with, our euro. US, dollar chart. All. Right so last, week we were looking for a drop not ever, drop but now we have, a big pin, in the bottom so we have come into the, neck support or resistance level, here 1.18, 20 and price has pushed, up since then so, with this one here, this. Shows rejection. So the buyers have stepped in and. Prices. Having having. Trouble, here so now there, are two. Things or, that. We need to pay attention to or we need to kind of take. A look at here so. Now if Euro breaks up higher, here, so, if it breaks up to the upside and then pulls back and stays above, the pin here then, we're, looking for price to move up higher so overall, my. Bias, is to the other side however, if it doesn't break through the pin here then, we, may not get the move higher, so. That's something that we have to pay attention to because if it holds below, our resistance. Level here that, could do a double top and drop, as well so, right now with just where it is in terms of our, support resistance, if, this, happens then it's likely to drop so in this case we, have to be open to both, sides of the move here so, the bias will be to the upside but if it doesn't break a 1.19. 80 level here then it can just drop, so that's the caveat here, we'll have to look, at that because in that case if, price get stuck we have below, our resistance. Level here it, could come all the way down, give us a double bottom and then, kind, of go back into the range, here you could turn a range around from, from. This point so that's why we need to we. Need to take a look at what, happens, at one, point 1 980, level, if it stays below then, we're looking for it to drop if it goes through and looking, for a pullback. Looking, for a bullish move to the next level and the, higher level target, would be one point 2130, level, which is the top of this candle. For. Pound. Dollar. Here, dollar. Has. Been going. Sideways, for, the entire, week and this is what we could start seeing from the euro here but, pound has been going sideways it's it's, been arranged, around the entire, week, so if you take a look at the weekly candle, it's a very very neutral, candle because, price hasn't really broken, out of that out of this daily range and for.
The Entire week so, with this one we do need to see price break, out of the range it's kind of similar to this here where price. Had started moving upwards. And then it became, range bound and finally, broke through the range who, will have to either see the break of the range to the upside, in which, case we'll look for a price to move up higher and. Let's. Look at here we go so that in that case we're looking for a move the higher to. 13750. Level. Or, we. Need to see a drop, below, the range here and in. That case our target, would be 1.30. To 80 so, so far for the last few weeks we have seen some nice moves, nice, trending, moves and now, we are at that point where, prices. Are, are, changing, that the market is turning and it's, the turning points, that can be the most difficult to trade because, we, don't know what, it's gonna do whether it's, going to pull back or it's gonna continue on, so. Just, a note of caution there, anytime there, are we. Are into this type of a sideways, move we, just have to be careful and we need to see Christ either break to the upside or, break. Downward. And based on that we. Would have to make, that decision so right now we have pins on both sides it's completely. Neutral, so, what, are we looking for we're looking for a break above pull, back and hold. And then a move to the upside or, we, need to see a break below pull, back and then we're looking for moved to the downside so, considering, we are in this type. Of a scenario if, it breaks up, of our, our. Daily. Range here then the next target would be 130 750. If it breaks below here, then, our next target is 1.30. 280, so, those will be the two targets for, ready pound again we need to see which way it breaks. Aussie. Dollar here, ah see. Again we have seen a large pin. So. With this one, price. Is we, are kind of in the similar situation where we, saw with the euro here we have a large pin to the downside, to suggest that price, price.
Had Trouble, here, breaking, through the support now it's holding above so, but this one here is well we are at that level where either we need to see a break we need to actually see a break above here, for, it to continue so my bias is to the upside but, again we have a caveat because if you get stuck here if it does not break, 75. 80 then. It could come all the way down to test the bottom and give. Us a bit of a double bottom and we could start seeing similar. Moves, to predict pound where pound dollar where price is just going sideways, for days until, it's ready to break out so here it's been going, sideways on the on the daily it has pulled back but on the weekly here we do have a doji, or a pin bar here and we. Just need to see where, it breaks so the, way I'm, going to trade this is I will take a look at where. What. Happens, at, 75. 80 level, if price. Still. Stays, below this level then, I'm looking for price to come back down test, the bottom, of our, range. Here and then do, one of these now. On the other hand if price drops, and then breaks below that I'm looking for a call back and a hold and then, I'm looking for the next level for, the price to get to which, would be 73. 30 level, we're, looking for we're. Looking for price to give us show us the market direction, so we don't at this point we, don't know where it's gonna go so we just need to wait and see what, happens with it so those would be the two levels that, would mark and just, keep. Them in mind here and so. Either way. The price but first I'm looking for it to go up and this. Will here 7580. Will be a critical area to watch out for New. Zealand dollar a New Zealand dollar we still have a weakness in this one and we, did see the monetary, policy actually from New Zealand dollar last, week as well and it was. Negative. So, there. Was bearish. Response to add to that we saw New Zealand dollar drop, so. Here, we, see, there. Is still, so. They're still weakness, it's not like. Australian. Dollar where we have a pin bar we still have a bearish candle but there is a large pin in the bottom as well and the size of the pin is almost the same as the size of candle. Itself so, what does that mean means we could see a retest, up the bottom once, again here so, I would look for price to retest, the bottom and the. Bottom here will be more important, as a bias will be to the downside but, I would be gosh I, would be very cautious here, if price, does, not break, the bottom then, we could get a double, bottom type of scenario and I would look for price to go and test the high once. Again and like I said we are kind of in the at. An interesting point after. Several, weeks of drop here, now, price is starting. To turn, around so, we have to be careful. With this week's trading, because it's. The choppy markets, that can really. Give. Us problems, trending, markets are easier to trade and the choppy markets, okay, so what am I looking for here my bias is to the downside I'm looking for a retest at the bottom of, 0.6. To 900, if price holds above, that, level then, I'd. Be looking for a move all the way back into 1750. Level into. This high or potentially, even into. 71. Hundreds, of zero point seven one zero zero and if. It drops, below here, breaks through the bottom drops below that I'm looking for continuation, move, to, the downside so. Those are the two scenarios again like I said we it's. That one of those levels where we have to be careful, so biases, to the downside, for a New Zealand dollar dollar. Cat here dollar cat has been interesting, we saw, we. Had seen price go up and it was trading, in this range for the longest time it broke, out to the upside. Into. The next support and resistance area all, the way to the high here, and then, dropped. From there so now we came, back into the range and we. Went all the way into the bottom and we have a. Cool. Accent now so, if you take a look at it from our daily perspective. Here we, are right. In the middle here so we're kind of in this, mess, here, that price was. In for a while here so, we do have a bearish, candle. Close here so I'm looking for further bearishness. Looking, for price to drop but. It could go up prior, to that and with this one we need to keep an eye on oil, as well so what I'd be looking for will, be something like this I'm looking for a retest, of one, point. 2,900. Or 2920, level and then, looking, for price to drop, from there so basically looking for a retest of this previous important resistance level and and. I would be looking for this, type of a, triple. Top or something from it had her shoulders, whatever you want to call it basically, looking for price to go to, the left and test the same level 1.29.
12. Or 20, ish level like this and then, drop to the bottom. Target. Would be one point, 27. 30 level, and then, if it drops through then I'm looking for price to come in to the bottom so, overall bias is still. To the downside but I am looking for price to pull up first before, it, drops. Euro. Pound Euro Pound was interesting, we had moves, on both sides here, prior, to the Bank of England, we saw price. Price. Drop and then we, saw it go back up so craziness. With, Euro Pound in this case we do have. Have. This pin bar here and it, right into the resistance, so my bias will be to the upside here we do need to clear the resistance, at 8840. Level but, the bias is once it clears that bias, will be all. The way back to. The to the top here so kind of like this but, because we have bearishness, in here, anytime. There's just, like this one here because we have bearishness in here it can do, a test, of the bottom, before. Going up kind of similar to this so, that scenario is definitely. Something that can happen but. Overall, I'm looking for price to move up higher and target would be 89, 50, to the upside. Let's. Take a look at, pound. Cat, here pound cat the. Bias is a, bearish, two to. Neutral. Here we, have pins, on both sides we have small candle body so, that looks quite. Neutral. At the moment as we, can see we are stuck behind this, resistance. Here so what what can we expect here. I'm looking for price to go and test the high potential II and then, drop, from there and looking, for price to go into one month how many want fifty so this is completely, neutral so we could get one of these moves where price goes up I test. The high, gives, us a double top or something comes. All the way into the bottom gives, us a double bottom and go, sideways, because, as we can think those other pairs are going sideways as well pound as well as. Canadian. Dollar so, this could give us a similar move so, I'm looking for price to essentially trade between the levels, looking, for potential. Selling at one point seventy five sixty and potential. Buying, at 70 150 so, that's the, bias for pound CAD euro. CAD here, your, cat actually gave, us. Gave. Us this daily. Candle, here so bullish engulfing candle. On the weekly this one does have bearishness. In it but, now we, could see price. Test. The bottom potentially, and then go, back higher, again, so, maybe, something like this, and. Then like. That so basically I'm looking for priced dudes. Range. Here, for. The candle, because we do have so, this is bearish to neutral, that's the bias and so, I'm looking for this type of price, drops, into the bottom there will bottom and then, goes up all the way into the high potential. Double, top and then comes back into the range so this, week I am not, expecting, much. Of trending. Or very, many trending, moves a lot, of it is market, going sideways they're, trying to digest all the information. That. Has come into the market at this point so between monetary policies, and and trade.
Wars And. Now, we have nuclear war. Treaty. And all that kind of stuff so all of that just, creates volatility. In the morale we. Like volatility. But too much volatility is the bad thing because we, don't know where the markets going or what it's doing so there's a lot of sentiment. That. Comes into the market that, drives the prices instead, of actual. You. Know real reasons, for moving the market and also because we have seen several weeks of drops now, it just makes sense for the market to to. Take a breather of sideways, that type of stuff so that's why I'm looking for a lot of sideways moves this. Week, so. Let's go on to. Aussie. Hear how an Aussie, is. We. Have a bar, here so let me just get rid of. So. We have a pin, bar here, and. That. I'm looking for price, to rip off here because, that's a nice nice, doji, looking, bearish bias is bearish in this case we could see price do one of these pullback, and then drop. And, my. Bias, will be to the downside, for this one but do be to, be careful with the because. It could go back all the way into one. Point eighty one thirty level, even the, first pull back I would be looking for would be into, one point eighty level, which is essentially, this, but, it could pull back deeper. Go, all the way into the stream is level which. Is at one. Point eighty. Different. So that's why we would have to be careful but overall looking for price to drop next, target, is one, point seventy, six hundred, will be my target to the downside which is the bottom of this candle so now we have this one is more for trending, move here we're seeing price drop, so I'm looking for it to continue. Down. Here. Euro. Ozzy. This. One is looking, a bearish. As well, looking, for price do go into, 1.56. Twenty level but, again we, have seen, price, have problem. Right, over here so we need to see price drop pullback. And then drop. A once again so that's the type of move I'm looking but we do need to see a break, up the low here at 157. Seventy level and then, a further drop so bias is through, the. Prices. To the downside. Okay. So. All right so let's move on to our Swiss. Crosses. Here. We're the Swiss crosses, looking, a little messy. Here. We're. Let's see where are we so. Here we are so price has moved lower, now we have a pen bar so, in this case there is still a bearishness, in, the. Market, so we could see price drop, like this and go. Back up again test, the high and then, go back up so, overall, we, are still in this, bullish. Bias here, but, it's moving quite slowly so. It could come. Back down and then go higher overall. Though I'm looking for price to price. To go up bias, is bullish for this but, but make sure that, we, watch out for these pull backs and then, further move to the upside. Pound. Swiss franc here, this, one is looking more bearish, than the other one we are into support, though so that's something we have to be careful with a right, right, into support, at this moment and we.
Need To look for price to clear, the support, here and then. Go, like this so looking for price to get into the next level here 1.30. 330, level, to the downside, so. We have we still have bearishness but, we do need to clear, this, support. Resistance level, so biases, to the downside four-pound swiss dollar. Swiss here, at. This one we have gone into the next level of support or resistance now, we have this pin bar so I'm looking for price to drop further and. Looking. At. 0.98. 70, level or the, next level to the downside, so bias is bearish. For $1, for Frank pound. Yen here. Pangaean. Has sort of gone a sideways. Here hasn't, it. Came in to the bottom here as struggling, with that so, it has pulled back so if we take a look at the daily it just hasn't really done a whole lot here so, with this one here, I'm still. Bearish. On this because overall biases bearish it's cold back now and I. Am looking for, price, to draw so. I'm looking for one of these moves and. Looking. For price to go lower, but. We have to be careful. That price breaks, the bottom we need to see a break, of the bottom here and then. Looking for price. To drop, a further. So. Bearish, bias, but, we, could see a pullback, here this is the concern. That. It could pull back higher, so price could go. Kind. Of go like this and then come, back down so, again we are in that sideways. Type of market, where we could see more pull backs and then, price goes into the high of one fifty-fifty, level and then, does a drop from there and then, in that case the target would be 147, and then, we are looking for further, targets, to the downside, so this week we have to be careful. With our trading, um in. This case here this is our euro, yen price came into the bottom tested. The low and then we have a bullish, pin bar so, here we're looking for a further move to the upside here. 13250. Would, be the target, to. The upsides of looking for price to go up higher. Dollar. Yen. Dollar. Yen it's just, sideways, at the moment we had a doji, here went, and tested the high once again we, could get another, test of the high so. We could do one of these triple. Top type of formations. Here but, right now it's just sideways. And hasn't really gone anywhere so if we take a look at the daily price. Is sideways and we could see. Right. Now it's is just trading, the range so it's very, much range bound again, we need to see a break of the range so right now I will look for price coming to the low of 108 70, and potentially. Go. Up from there and go, test the high and just trade the range so. Best. Type of scenario in, a range bound market, is selling, at the high 109, 98. So 110. Level, that's bearish. 108. 80 level, that is bullish so, until. Such. Time that price breaks out of this range we're gonna trade this as a range bound market. Ozzie. And. Looking. Bullish at the moment looking for price to move up higher. First. Target is 83. 10 and then, it can go into, 8400.
Level So, it's looking bullish, at the moment. Cadion. Cadion. Is still, sitting, in that range, that it's been in for a while, so. In, this case. It. Is neutral. Bullish, to neutral, here and. Again, range, bound for, several. Weeks now hasn't, really broken out of this range so again looking, for a cell at, 8600. Looking for a buy at eighty four hundred eighty, four point zero zero I should say so. Looking, for more, for range bound market, and until, such time that it breaks out of the range then, either we could look for neck. Level to the upside, which is. Our. Eighty seven eighty level, or we, would be looking for next. Level lower, which, will be 80 to 70 but, first we need to I'm, just going to look for arrangement, market till, it breaks out. Alright, so let's take a look at gold here, gold. At the moment I'm still. Looking. Range bound we've been in this. Range, for, a period. Of time now. Christ, came in to the bottom here has pushed, off but, it is sitting, low, at the moment right now it is sitting lower. Into, this below, this previous, important resistance level right there so, if price stays, below this level then. We. Can see price drop like this and then, do. One, of these so. What, am I looking for that's the move I'm looking for or looking for price to retest, the, 1326. Level if it stays below they're looking for it, to test the bottom of the range once again if, it breaks through that I'm looking for price to stay below and, looking. For price to go into twelve eighty level, especially, if we see a US dollar start. To weaken, we. Are likely, to get. In. A gold, going, up but. If US dollar strength. And then gold can come down here, so. Overall, though this, is a move I would look for but because this we are in range. Bound move and we have been in quite. Some time in a range bound to, market, what happens as price comes in to the bottom and then, goes up breaks, through and goes, up like that so, that's the this, is the base case scenario, where we are trading the range and looking for price to stay within the range where, the second scenario is priced test high breaks, through and does one, of these. All. Right so next one. Euro. Ozzy. Let's take a look at your Z, your, Aussie it is it's. Going. Sideways at the moment but. Overall it, has made, lower, highs and lower, lows we. Are sitting into support, overall, the biases, to the downside, but, we have it's, testing, the bottom and it's kind, of struggling with that right, now so I would like to see a break of the low hold. And then tries, to move into the next level here so let's, get. So. Next level will be 130 620 but we need to see a break below here if it doesn't break and then, price, because just go. Do. One of these so that's what I would be careful about, but. Once it breaks through the bottom here through the support here then, looking, for price to go into. 1.56. 20, level. All right any other questions. Okay. If not then just a, reminder, here, so it's the last opportunity if. You want to sign up for, my. Trade, room service, or a signal, service as. A, part. Of that what, you get is you. Get access to my private skype group where i share, my trading ideas and, every, day. We hold our daily market analysis, called, and kind, of similar to what we did here we, do it on a daily basis, and we're looking for what levels to take trades at and then, I also trade. New. York and London session so Tuesday, and Fridays, I trade the new obsession and then, Tuesdays and Wednesdays I, trade the London session so, I look for live trades, during, those sessions, and also, at the end of the when we're doing a daily market analysis, cause I'll send out a trade alerts that we let run or overnight. And they, usually play out in the London session we'll just set them up and we. Let them run, based on the on the crosses, that we look at the pairs that we look at we, pick a, couple, of the best ones and take. Trades, and those that we just let run, overnight, so. When I send out my. Live, trades I do, I. Do share with you my stop loss and take profit targets, as well as well, as the entry levels, so. Another. Thing we also do is every Friday we have a Members Only webinar. And I, do. This is an educational, webinars, I talk on a topic, that everyone. Is or some people may be struggling with so, we do, educational. Webinars as part, of the service as well as well, as you get my pivot point indicator, which, is one. Of my favourite indicators, to trade, and then. The. Cost of this is nice have nose month and you can sign up at, this link a, bitly. TW. B, trade, room so, this is the last day that this is going to be available I'm making some changes to my service. So. I'm gonna get rid of this trade, room so we'll just be offering services, in a slightly different manner just kind of taking you get what my vision is for what.
I'm Doing here. So, everything else like our weekly analysis, and stuff like that will continue traders will continue but the format of it will, change and the prices, will go higher but. If you, sign. Up now you, will have these prices for as long as you choose to stay the members so regardless, of what, the new prices, are you, would still be. Grandfathering, at this price so your prices, will not go higher so this is the last opportunity to sign up if you want. To do that as of, Monday we'll. Just, the. Link will come down and then we'll be working on the new offerings, so. That's, all I have. If, you like to sign up you can go to this link and do, so so. You guys have, a wonderful. Rest. Of the week and happy Mother's Day to all the moms, out there. Thank. You Tom. I am. A mother as well and I, am taking, some. Taking. Some relaxing, time here. Anyway. So you guys have a wonderful trading. Week and I will see you again next week for our weekly analysis. Bye. For now.